The Crypto Bull Has Changed: You Can't Search for New Treasure with Old Maps
Market's DNA
Excitement is at its peak in the cryptocurrency market. Everyone is anticipating the intoxicating highs of the next bull run, fondly recalling the legendary "100x" stories of 2017 and 2021. However, there is a crucial fact they either forget or ignore: the rules of the game have completely changed. Trying to survive in today's market with the strategies of past bull seasons is like trying to navigate an unknown ocean with an old compass.
Here are the sharp differences between the past and the present, and the realities every investor needs to "wake up" to:
1. The Token Explosion: Drops in an Ocean
The Old Bull Run (e.g., 2017): At the peak of the 2017 bull run, the total number of cryptocurrencies in the market was around 1,500. Alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, a few major altcoins (like Litecoin, Ripple, Cardano, etc.) shared the largest slice of the pie. Fresh money entering the market flowed into this limited number of projects, creating a "rising tide lifts all boats" effect. You could almost close your eyes and invest in a random project and still have a high chance of making money. Capital was more concentrated.
The Present (2024 and beyond): Today, there are over 20,000 active tokens listed on platforms like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko. In addition to this, hundreds, even thousands, of new "meme coins" and projects are born every day on networks like Solana, Base, and BSC. Now, the money entering the market has to be distributed among tens of thousands of projects. This means the capital is extremely diluted.
Wake-Up Call: The faucet that once filled a single pool is now trying to fill thousands of small glasses at the same time. There is no guarantee that your glass will be filled.
2. Total Market Cap: Bigger Numbers, Smaller Multiples
The Old Bull Run (2017): The total market capitalization reached approximately $830 billion at the end of 2017. This was a colossal figure for the time and represented an incredible increase of about 3000%-4000% from the bottom to the peak. In such a small pool, even a small capital inflow could create massive percentage gains.
The More Recent Bull Run (2021): In the 2021 bull run, the market cap approached $3 trillion. Although the size increased, the rate of increase from bottom to top was lower than in the previous bull run.
The Present: In the next bull run, the market cap is expected to reach $5 trillion or more. But don't let the large numbers fool you. A market moving from $3 trillion to $6 trillion is a "100% increase." A market moving from $100 billion to $1 trillion was a "900% increase." As the market grows, it requires significantly more new money to achieve the same multiple of growth. This means overall market rallies may be more modest in percentage terms.
Wake-Up Call: Don't be dazzled by big numbers. What matters is the multiplication factor of the money. The bigger the market gets, the more capital is needed just to double it.
3. The Flow of Money: Whales and Institutions Are at the Table
The Old Bull Run: The market was primarily a playground for retail investors. While large players known as "whales" existed, institutional money was almost non-existent. This created a wilder environment but one that also held more opportunities for the individual investor.
The Present: We are no longer alone at the table. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity with their spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, venture capital (VC) funds, and corporate treasuries are all in the game. While these massive players have the potential to push prices up by injecting billions, there's one key fact: they invested before you did.
In the seed and private investment rounds of most new and popular projects, these institutional giants and VCs acquire millions of dollars worth of tokens at prices far cheaper than what is available to the public. As the price rises and the retail investor dreams of it "going even higher," they are taking profits at 100x or 500x their cost. The levels where you are entering could very well be their exit ramp.
Wake-Up Call: As you are boarding the train, the big players may be preparing to get off at the next station. Their game plan is not the same as yours.
4. Technology and Data: The End of Simple Charting
The Past: Data analysis used to be simpler. Chart patterns, candlesticks, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) genuinely worked. A double top, a triangle formation, etc., could make you money. A patient person with a bit of technical knowledge could easily profit in crypto. The market was driven more by raw, predictable retail psychology.
The Present: This is now almost impossible; in fact, those with the most technical knowledge are often the most misled. The old patterns have been completely broken. High-frequency trading bots and institutional algorithms are designed to exploit these classic retail patterns. They hunt for liquidity by pushing the price just enough to trigger the stop-losses of traders relying on old-school charting. A Head and Shoulders pattern might form and start to break down, but this is often a trap to lure in short-sellers before a sharp reversal. The "unseen hands" are not hidden, they are just playing a different, more sophisticated game. The new "technical analysis" is now ai data: tracking whale wallets, monitoring exchange inflows/outflows, and analyzing token unlock schedules provides a far greater edge than a simple chart pattern.
Wake-Up Call: Your RSI is no match for a high-frequency trading algorithm. The new chart is the blockchain itself.
5. The War of Narratives
Money no longer flows into "crypto" as a whole. Instead, it rapidly chases specific, popular stories or "narratives."
AI (Artificial Intelligence) Tokens
RWA (Real-World Assets)
DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks)
GameFi (Game Finance)
One week, everyone is talking about AI, and the next, all the capital might rush into gaming projects. If you are stuck in the wrong narrative, your portfolio can stagnate or even decline while the rest of the market is booming.
Conclusion: How to Survive?
This is not meant to paint a pessimistic picture, but to serve as a wake-up call. The opportunities are not fewer than before, they are just different and more challenging. The era of "easy money" is over. To be a winner in the new bull market:
Do Your Research The days of investing because "somebody said so" are over. Understand the project's tokenomics, who its major investors are, and when their tokens unlock.
Follow the Narrative Understand where the money is flowing and which sectors are popular. Don't commit everything to a single basket.
Know How to Take Profits "HODL" (holding on for dear life) is not a valid strategy for every coin. Set clear targets for yourself, and don't be afraid to realize your gains when you reach them. Remember, profit on the table isn't yours until it's in your wallet.
Be Realistic It is mathematically impossible for everyone to achieve 100x returns. Approaching the market with reasonable goals will protect you from major disappointments.
The nostalgia of past bull runs is nice, but those days are not coming back. Those who read the market based on today's realities, adjust their strategies accordingly, and remain disciplined will be the winners of the next bull run. The others will get lost searching for new treasure with old maps.
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